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M94A2312.TXT
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1994-10-25
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Document 2312
DOCN M94A2312
TI Risk assessment of spread of STD (specifically, AIDS) by computer
simulation.
DT 9412
AU Kubo T; Shigemitsu S; Asaka M; Tsukuba University, Ibaraki, Japan.
SO Int Conf AIDS. 1994 Aug 7-12;10(1):332 (abstract no. PC0264). Unique
Identifier : AIDSLINE ICA10/94370263
AB OBJECTIVE: To study the relationship between the spread of STD and the
sexual freedoms in a society (i.e. distribution of the number of each
person's sexual partners in a society). METHODS: To investigate the size
of a sexually connected group (SCG) and the distribution of the size of
the groups in society by constructing SCG using computer simulation. The
SCG is a group in which each member is directly or indirectly sexually
connected and disconnected with persons from outside the group. The size
of the group indicates risk of spread of all STD (but specifically
AIDS). RESULTS: When the distribution of the number of sexual partners
in a society with a given population of 100,000 is simulated by the
following equation: p = (r-1)r-n where n is the number of sexual
partners (= nsp) and r = 3 for men, r = 4 for women (which is most
similar to the real situation in Japan), average size of the group to
which a person with nsp = 2 and 8 belongs to are 13 and 48 respectively.
When 100 commercial sex workers with nsp = 200 are added to this
society, the average size of the group escalates to 5,200 and 13,000
respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Mandatory testing of all commercial sex
workers is therefore one of the essential countermeasures against the
spread of STD.
DE Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/EPIDEMIOLOGY/*TRANSMISSION Adult
*Computer Simulation Female Human Japan/EPIDEMIOLOGY Male *Models,
Statistical Prostitution/STATISTICS & NUMER DATA Risk Factors Sex
Behavior Sexual Partners Sexually Transmitted
Diseases/EPIDEMIOLOGY/*TRANSMISSION MEETING ABSTRACT
SOURCE: National Library of Medicine. NOTICE: This material may be
protected by Copyright Law (Title 17, U.S.Code).